Analysis of climate extremes indices over northeast Brazil from 1961 to 2014

• Published in: Weather and climate extremes Vol. 28; p. 100254
• Main Authors: Costa, Rafaela Lisboa, Macedo de Mello Baptista, Gustavo, Gomes, Heliofábio Barros, Daniel dos Santos Silva, Fabrício, Lins da Rocha Júnior, Rodrigo, de Araújo Salvador, Mozar, Herdies, Dirceu Luís
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.06.2020; Elsevier
• Subjects: CLIMDEX; Rainfall; Regional and sub-regional analysis; Temperature; Trends; CLIMDEX; Rainfall; Temperature; Regional and sub-regional analysis; Trends
• ISSN: 2212-0947; 2212-0947
• DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100254

An analysis of climate extremes indices was conducted for maximum temperatures (TMax), minimum temperatures (TMin), and daily rainfall data (PRCP) over the northeast region of Brazil for the period of 1961–2014. The indices were calculated for 96 weather stations using RClimDex software in a sub-regional study based on cluster analysis, as well as for each individual weather station, after a rigorous process of quality control, gap filling of missing values, and homogenization. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test was employed to assess the statistical significance of the series. The results indicate unequivocal signs of heating. In the past decades, there were predominant trends of decrease in the percentage of cold nights (−8.4% days/decade), increase in the percentage of the number of warm nights (10.6% days/decade), increase in the number of days per decade in which the minimum temperature exceeded the threshold of 20 °C, and a trend showing an increase in heat waves. This was corroborated by the declining trend in the number of consecutive days in which TMin did not exceed the 10th percentile, and the increase in the number of consecutive days in which TMax exceeded the 90th percentile in the data distribution. With regard to PRCP, in most weather stations where there is a significant increase in consecutive dry days, there is also a trend of significant increase in consecutive wet days, thereby intensifying the seasonality, with the dry seasons becoming drier and the rainy seasons wetter. In most weather stations, a reduction was found in the total annual precipitation and in the frequency of rainy days. Moreover, in many stations, an increase in rainfall events that surpasses the threshold of 95% and 99% in the distribution was discovered. These factors highlight concerns of a region of Brazil marked by the scarcity of perennial water resources and the threat of desertification. •The Northeast region of Brazil presents a significant reduction in the number of cold days and nights.•Heat waves are stronger and more frequent associated with the fall in the CSDI index and the increase in the WSDI index.•Maximum daily of TMax and TMin became frequent.•Overall, in a regional analysis, there was a decrease in rainfall in the Northeast region of Brazil.•The profile of rainfall extremes indexes shows well defined areas on the Northeast of Brazil.