Hydrological response to future climate change in a mountainous watershed in the Northeast of Tibetan Plateau

Upper reach of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) We quantified the potential changes in future climate and streamflow, as well as their corresponding contribution to the annual variations. And the dominant factors of streamflow change were explored in further. Robust multivariate bias correction was appl...

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Published inJournal of hydrology. Regional studies Vol. 44; p. 101256
Main Authors Chen, Zexia, Zhu, Rui, Yin, Zhenliang, Feng, Qi, Yang, Linshan, Wang, Lingge, Lu, Rui, Fang, Chunshuang
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier B.V 01.12.2022
Elsevier
Subjects
Climate change
CMIP6
Hydrological response
SWAT
Upper reach of Heihe River Basin
SWAT
Climate change
CMIP6
Hydrological response
Upper reach of Heihe River Basin
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Abstract Upper reach of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) We quantified the potential changes in future climate and streamflow, as well as their corresponding contribution to the annual variations. And the dominant factors of streamflow change were explored in further. Robust multivariate bias correction was applied to correct the outputs of the general circulation method (GCMs) before applying the climate projection. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was applied to explore streamflow characteristics under the climate projection of bias-corrected GCMs under four representative emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). By the end of the 21st century, climate will follow a warming and wetting trend within the basin; the annual streamflow is projected to increase by > 18 % in the 2030 s, and > 36 % in the 2050 s and 2090 s. Overall, the minimum temperature had a positive impact on streamflow in the cold seasons, especially in spring, contributing the most to the annual streamflow increment. When the temperature increase is greater than 5.42 °C, the peak streamflow will shift forward from May to April. Moreover, evapotranspiration will increase with temperature, leading to a decrease in summer streamflow. The results enable us to better understand the climate and streamflow changes at different time scales and provide guidance for the development of climate change response strategies and water resource management planning. [Display omitted] •Future hydrological processes simulation in mountainous watershed based on CMIP6.•The contributions of monthly and seasonal change to annual variation.•The increase of Tmin plays a dominant role in intra-annual streamflow variation.•The intra-annual streamflow curve will change from single peak to double peak.
AbstractList Study region: Upper reach of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) Study focus: We quantified the potential changes in future climate and streamflow, as well as their corresponding contribution to the annual variations. And the dominant factors of streamflow change were explored in further. Robust multivariate bias correction was applied to correct the outputs of the general circulation method (GCMs) before applying the climate projection. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was applied to explore streamflow characteristics under the climate projection of bias-corrected GCMs under four representative emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). New hydrological insights for the region: By the end of the 21st century, climate will follow a warming and wetting trend within the basin; the annual streamflow is projected to increase by > 18 % in the 2030 s, and > 36 % in the 2050 s and 2090 s. Overall, the minimum temperature had a positive impact on streamflow in the cold seasons, especially in spring, contributing the most to the annual streamflow increment. When the temperature increase is greater than 5.42 °C, the peak streamflow will shift forward from May to April. Moreover, evapotranspiration will increase with temperature, leading to a decrease in summer streamflow. The results enable us to better understand the climate and streamflow changes at different time scales and provide guidance for the development of climate change response strategies and water resource management planning.
Upper reach of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) We quantified the potential changes in future climate and streamflow, as well as their corresponding contribution to the annual variations. And the dominant factors of streamflow change were explored in further. Robust multivariate bias correction was applied to correct the outputs of the general circulation method (GCMs) before applying the climate projection. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was applied to explore streamflow characteristics under the climate projection of bias-corrected GCMs under four representative emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). By the end of the 21st century, climate will follow a warming and wetting trend within the basin; the annual streamflow is projected to increase by > 18 % in the 2030 s, and > 36 % in the 2050 s and 2090 s. Overall, the minimum temperature had a positive impact on streamflow in the cold seasons, especially in spring, contributing the most to the annual streamflow increment. When the temperature increase is greater than 5.42 °C, the peak streamflow will shift forward from May to April. Moreover, evapotranspiration will increase with temperature, leading to a decrease in summer streamflow. The results enable us to better understand the climate and streamflow changes at different time scales and provide guidance for the development of climate change response strategies and water resource management planning. [Display omitted] •Future hydrological processes simulation in mountainous watershed based on CMIP6.•The contributions of monthly and seasonal change to annual variation.•The increase of Tmin plays a dominant role in intra-annual streamflow variation.•The intra-annual streamflow curve will change from single peak to double peak.
ArticleNumber 101256
Author Chen, Zexia
Fang, Chunshuang
Yin, Zhenliang
Lu, Rui
Feng, Qi
Zhu, Rui
Yang, Linshan
Wang, Lingge
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Climate change
CMIP6
Hydrological response
Upper reach of Heihe River Basin
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SSID ssj0001878960
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Snippet Upper reach of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) We quantified the potential changes in future climate and streamflow, as well as their corresponding contribution...
Study region: Upper reach of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) Study focus: We quantified the potential changes in future climate and streamflow, as well as their...
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crossref
elsevier
SourceType Open Website
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StartPage 101256
SubjectTerms Climate change
CMIP6
Hydrological response
SWAT
Upper reach of Heihe River Basin
Title Hydrological response to future climate change in a mountainous watershed in the Northeast of Tibetan Plateau
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101256
https://doaj.org/article/46f4dae6b63c4e37aed3a1162e7d876f
Volume 44
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