Hydrological response to future climate change in a mountainous watershed in the Northeast of Tibetan Plateau

• Published in: Journal of hydrology. Regional studies Vol. 44; p. 101256
• Main Authors: Chen, Zexia, Zhu, Rui, Yin, Zhenliang, Feng, Qi, Yang, Linshan, Wang, Lingge, Lu, Rui, Fang, Chunshuang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.12.2022; Elsevier
• Subjects: Climate change; CMIP6; Hydrological response; SWAT; Upper reach of Heihe River Basin; SWAT; Climate change; CMIP6; Hydrological response; Upper reach of Heihe River Basin
• ISSN: 2214-5818; 2214-5818
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101256

Upper reach of the Heihe River basin (UHRB) We quantified the potential changes in future climate and streamflow, as well as their corresponding contribution to the annual variations. And the dominant factors of streamflow change were explored in further. Robust multivariate bias correction was applied to correct the outputs of the general circulation method (GCMs) before applying the climate projection. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was applied to explore streamflow characteristics under the climate projection of bias-corrected GCMs under four representative emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). By the end of the 21st century, climate will follow a warming and wetting trend within the basin; the annual streamflow is projected to increase by > 18 % in the 2030 s, and > 36 % in the 2050 s and 2090 s. Overall, the minimum temperature had a positive impact on streamflow in the cold seasons, especially in spring, contributing the most to the annual streamflow increment. When the temperature increase is greater than 5.42 °C, the peak streamflow will shift forward from May to April. Moreover, evapotranspiration will increase with temperature, leading to a decrease in summer streamflow. The results enable us to better understand the climate and streamflow changes at different time scales and provide guidance for the development of climate change response strategies and water resource management planning. [Display omitted] •Future hydrological processes simulation in mountainous watershed based on CMIP6.•The contributions of monthly and seasonal change to annual variation.•The increase of Tmin plays a dominant role in intra-annual streamflow variation.•The intra-annual streamflow curve will change from single peak to double peak.