What affects annual changes in traffic safety? A macroscopic perspective in Virginia

Virginia saw a 20% reduction in traffic fatalities in 2008, an unprecedented annual reduction since 1950, and safety stakeholders in Virginia were intrigued about what caused such large a reduction and more generally what affects traffic safety from a macroscopic perspective. This study attempted to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of safety research Vol. 53; pp. 17 - 21
Main Author Kweon, Young-Jun
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2015
Elsevier Science Ltd
Subjects
Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data
Consumer Price Index
Crash analysis
Crash exposure
Economic conditions
Economic indicator
Economic indicators
Fatalities
Humans
Safety
Stakeholders
Traffic accidents & safety
Traffic safety
Unemployment
Unemployment - statistics & numerical data
United States
Virginia
United States
Virginia
United States > US
Crash analysis
Economic indicator
Traffic safety
Crash exposure
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Summary:Virginia saw a 20% reduction in traffic fatalities in 2008, an unprecedented annual reduction since 1950, and safety stakeholders in Virginia were intrigued about what caused such large a reduction and more generally what affects traffic safety from a macroscopic perspective. This study attempted to find factors associated with such a reduction using historical data of Virginia. Specifically, the study related 18 factors to seven traffic safety measures. In terms of annual changes, the study found that typical crash exposures were not generally associated with the seven measures, while two economic indicators (unemployment rate and U.S. Consumer Price Index [CPI]) were strongly associated with most of them. Annual changes in the CPI and unemployment rate account for about half of the annual changes in total and fatal crash counts, respectively. On average, a 1 point increase in CPI and a 1% increase in the unemployment rate are associated with about 2,500 fewer traffic crashes and about 40 fewer fatal crashes annually in Virginia, respectively. •Typical crash exposures are generally not associated with crash/victim counts.•Economic indicators are strongly associated with crash/victim counts.•Especially, unemployment rate is associated with all seven crash/victim counts.•Changes in crash counts are better explained than changes in victim counts.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
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ISSN:0022-4375
1879-1247
DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2015.03.003