Dominant design and evolution of technological trajectories: The case of tank technology, 1915–1998

• Published in: Journal of evolutionary economics Vol. 31; no. 2; pp. 661 - 676
• Main Authors: Kim, Jinkuk, Yoon, Jungsub, Lee, Jeong-Dong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.04.2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Change agents; Clustering; Economic Growth; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods; Economics; Economics and Finance; Entrepreneurship; Evolution; Institutional/Evolutionary Economics; Microeconomics; Paradigms; Principal components analysis; R & D/Technology Policy; Regular Article; Science and technology; Socioeconomic factors; Weapons; Tank technology; Technological trajectory; O31; Product evolution; O33; Principal component analysis
• ISSN: 0936-9937; 1432-1386
• DOI: 10.1007/s00191-020-00697-1

This study examines the evolution of product-based technological trajectories by linking technology and socioeconomic factors. Products evolve to adapt to market conditions in a manner similar to biological evolution, and form a constant trajectory under the influence of the current technological paradigm. This study analyzes the changes in technological trajectories after the emergence of a dominant design in the core weapon of the army—armored tanks. Based on a case study of the evolution of tanks between 1915 and 1998 and the application of principal component analysis (PCA, to transform technological characteristics of tanks into product performance) and K-means clustering (to classify the types of tanks based on the PCA), we find that tanks have evolved into a common pattern of product evolution and the main battle tank concept plays a role as the dominant design. In addition, military tactical doctrines and capability requirements are used to explain the socioeconomic factors at the core of the technological paradigm behind tank development. We argue that the interaction between science, technology, and the social element is responsible for product evolution. In the case of tanks, moreover, we show that the product evolution process follows continuous changes in the technological trajectory resulting from technological advances. This study also derives policy implications for weapons system acquisition.