Challenging the Odds: Incumbency Disadvantage, Local Ties, and Electoral Performance in Hungary, 1994–2010

Most empirical studies of the effect of incumbency conclude that being a defender of the seat is an advantage and that newcomers and challengers alike have increasingly lower probabilities of winning. Yet, the majority of these studies in Eastern Europe have been based on tumultuous political enviro...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEast European politics and societies Vol. 32; no. 3; pp. 518 - 543
Main Author Papp, Zsófia
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications Ltd 01.08.2018
SAGE Publications
Sage Publications Ltd
Subjects
Candidates
Elections
Electoral systems
Incumbency
Leadership
Mayors
National elections
Newcomers
Panel data
Political campaigns
Political history
Political leadership
Political parties
Politicians
Proportional representation
Public relations
Sociology of Politics
Transformation Period (1990 - 2010)
Voting
Hungary
incumbency
Hungary
elections
local politicians
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Summary:Most empirical studies of the effect of incumbency conclude that being a defender of the seat is an advantage and that newcomers and challengers alike have increasingly lower probabilities of winning. Yet, the majority of these studies in Eastern Europe have been based on tumultuous political environments in which electoral rules change frequently. A test of the theory of how candidate traits such as legislative and local political experience increase incumbents’ electoral performance has not been done in an environment in which the electoral rules are stable. Furthermore, these studies are based in proportional representation (PR) systems, which amplify the role of the party leadership in determining candidate fate through candidate rankings. I examine Hungary’s mixed-member system using candidate-level panel data that covers Hungarian national elections from 1994 to 2010, and contains basic information on all candidates running in SMDs. I find that Hungarian SMD incumbents perform worse at the elections than their challengers. However, in the long run, legislative experience in SMDs neutralizes this effect. Additionally, local politicians, such as mayors, manage to increase their vote share at national elections.
ISSN:0888-3254
1533-8371
DOI:10.1177/0888325417725785