Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plant species in Europe

With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity, comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum glo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inGlobal environmental change Vol. 16; no. 1; pp. 19 - 28
Main Authors Bakkenes, Michel, Eickhout, Bas, Alkemade, Rob
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2006
Subjects
Biodiversity
Climate change
Environmental change
Flora
Integrated assessment
Scenario analysis
Stabilisation profiles
Europe
Mediterranean Region
Climate change
Scenario analysis
Biodiversity
Stabilisation profiles
Integrated assessment
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Summary:With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity, comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum global-mean temperature increase of 2 °C is likely to be met in a 550 ppmv CO 2-equivalent stabilisation profile, large areas of ecosystems in Europe will be affected. Most of the impacts manifest themselves in northern countries, with a high net increase of plant species, and in Mediterranean countries, with a decrease in the number of plant species and stable area. Other impacts are less robust, given the regional variation in climate results for different climate models.
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ISSN:0959-3780
1872-9495
DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.11.001