Spatial shifting of COVID-19 clusters and disease association with environmental parameters in India: A time series analysis

• Published in: Environmental research Vol. 222; p. 115288
• Main Authors: Jana, Arup, Kundu, Sampurna, Shaw, Subhojit, Chakraborty, Sukanya, Chattopadhyay, Aparajita
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier Inc 01.04.2023
• Subjects: Air Pollutants - analysis; Air Pollution - analysis; Bayes Theorem; COVID-19; Environmental Monitoring; Environmental parameters; Humans; India; Nitrogen Dioxide - analysis; Pandemic; Particulate Matter - analysis; Respiratory Aerosols and Droplets; Spatial association; Time Factors; Time series; India; COVID-19; Pandemic; Environmental parameters; Time series; Spatial association
• ISSN: 0013-9351; 1096-0953
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115288

The viability and virulence of COVID-19 are complex in nature. Although the relationship between environmental parameters and COVID-19 is well studied across the globe, in India, such studies are limited. This research aims to explore long-term exposure to weather conditions and the role of air pollution on the infection spread and mortality due to COVID-19 in India. District-level COVID-19 data from April 26, 2020 to July 10, 2021 was used for the study. Environmental determinants such as land surface temperature, relative humidity (RH), Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3), and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) were considered for analysis. The bivariate spatial association was used to explore the spatial relationship between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and these environmental factors. Further, the Bayesian multivariate linear regression model was applied to observe the association between environmental factors and the CFR of COVID-19. Spatial shifting of COVID-19 cases from Western to Southern and then Eastern parts of India were well observed. The infection rate was highly concentrated in most of the Western and Southern regions of India, while the CFR shows more concentration in Northern India along with Maharashtra. Four main spatial clusters of infection were recognized during the study period. The time-series analysis indicates significantly more CFR with higher AOD, O3, and NO2 in India. COVID-19 is highly associated with environmental parameters and air pollution in India. The study provides evidence to warrant consideration of environmental parameters in health models to mediate potential solutions. Cleaner air is a must to mitigate COVID-19. •A spatial shift in the clustering of COVID-19 cases was observed from Western to Southern and then Eastern parts of India.•Although a higher concentration of infection rate was found mainly in the Sothern regions, the case fatality rate was low.•Multiple spatial clusters are simultaneously formed for environmental determinants and case fatality rates.•With one unit increase in land surface temperature, the case fatality rate increases by 40.89 units.•The case fatality rate displays positive relation with aerosol optical depth, level of ozone, and nitrogen dioxide in India.