Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Deep Learning for End-User Transformer Subject to Volatile Electric Heating Loads

• Published in: IEEE access Vol. 7; pp. 162697 - 162707
• Main Authors: Chen, Qifang, Xia, Mingchao, Lu, Teng, Jiang, Xichen, Liu, Wenxia, Sun, Qinfei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Piscataway IEEE 2019; The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
• Subjects: Artificial neural networks; Coders; Data mining; Deep learning; Electric heating; extreme learning machine; Feature extraction; feature representation; Forecasting; Heating load; Iterative methods; Knowledge representation; Load; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Machine learning; Mathematical models; Nonlinearity; Short-term load forecasting; Smoothness; stacked auto-encoder; Time series; Time series analysis; Training; Transformers; Volatility
• ISSN: 2169-3536; 2169-3536
• DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2949726

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) for End-User Transformer Level (EUTL) is challenging due to the high penetration of Electric Heating Loads (EHLs), which exhibit significant uncertainty, nonlinearity, and variability. In this paper, a STLF model is proposed based on the Stacked Auto-Encoder Extreme Learning Machine (SAE-ELM) deep learning framework, which can be used to extract hidden features from the time series load data. In order to improve the capability of extracting deep and diverse features from the data and generate a useful knowledge representation structure, a novel specialized feature indices set is proposed to construct the training sample set. The sliding trend, fluctuation rate, grade of change, and smoothness of the time series are considered and quantified as elements of the training sample set. Then, deep nonlinear features are extracted by using the SAE-ELM with no iterative parameter tuning needed. To illustrate the validity of the proposed model, five numerical cases are conducted. Comparison of results shows that the proposed model improves the capability and sensitivity of dealing with load volatility and forecasting accuracy.