Integration of multiple climate models to predict range shifts and identify management priorities of the endangered Taxus wallichiana in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain region

• Published in: Journal of forestry research Vol. 31; no. 6; pp. 2255 - 2272
• Main Authors: Li, Peixian, Zhu, Wenquan, Xie, Zhiying, Qiao, Kun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.12.2020; Springer; Springer Nature B.V; Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China
• Subjects: Analysis; Annual precipitation; atmospheric precipitation; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climate prediction; climatic factors; conservation areas; data collection; Elevation; endangered species; Environmental impact; Exploitation; Forestry; Geographical distribution; Geospatial data; Global climate models; Global temperature changes; habitats; Impact prediction; Life Sciences; Mountain regions; Mountains; Original Paper; Planting; prediction; Protected areas; Protection and preservation; Seasonal variations; Taxus wallichiana; Temperature; uncertainty; Wildlife conservation; Zucc; Climate warming; Conservation and cultivation; MaxEnt; Potential distribution; Taxus wallichiana Zucc
• ISSN: 1007-662X; 1993-0607
• DOI: 10.1007/s11676-019-01009-5

Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana ’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability.