How reliable are design flood estimates in the UK?

Design flood estimates in the UK are routinely obtained by using the improved Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) statistical procedure. This paper presents a practical framework for assessing the uncertainty associated with estimates of the index flood (QMED) obtained for a range of commonly encountere...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of flood risk management Vol. 8; no. 3; pp. 237 - 246
Main Author Kjeldsen, T.R.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.09.2015
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Subjects
Estimates
Extreme
hydrology
risk assessment
uncertainty analysis
British Isles
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Summary:Design flood estimates in the UK are routinely obtained by using the improved Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) statistical procedure. This paper presents a practical framework for assessing the uncertainty associated with estimates of the index flood (QMED) obtained for a range of commonly encountered problems: the gauged, the ungauged and the sparsely gauged catchment. An assessment is presented of the uncertainty of design flood estimates when estimated at ungauged catchments for a range of return periods. The results show that the inclusion of data from nearby gauged catchments increases the reliability of the estimates when compared to an automated application of the improved FEH methods relying on catchment descriptors only.
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ISSN:1753-318X
1753-318X
DOI:10.1111/jfr3.12090