Where in Europe is Chrysomya albiceps? Modelling present and future potential distributions
Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), a species of blowfly (Diptera, Calliphoridae), historically distributed throughout Southern Europe, has recently dispersed to cooler regions in Europe, which is an intriguing phenomenon. In this work, we used Maxent software to formulate climate suitability usin...
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Published in | NeoBiota Vol. 85; pp. 81 - 99 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Sofia
Pensoft Publishers
12.06.2023
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Chrysomya albiceps
(Wiedemann, 1819), a species of blowfly (Diptera, Calliphoridae), historically distributed throughout Southern Europe, has recently dispersed to cooler regions in Europe, which is an intriguing phenomenon. In this work, we used Maxent software to formulate climate suitability using a machine learning technique to investigate this fact. The bioclimatic variables that best explained the climate suitability were Annual Mean Temperature (67.7%) and Temperature Annual Range (21.4%). We found that
C. albiceps
is climatically suitable for several parts of Europe, except for high altitude areas like the Swiss Alps. In warmer countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the entire coastal territory was the most suitable for the species. Future scenario models show that in these eastern countries and some northern areas, climate suitability has increased. This increase is reinforced when comparing the gains and losses in climate suitability between the present-day model and the future scenario models. These changes are most likely caused by changes in temperature, which is the main explanatory factor among the tested variables, for the climate suitability. As one of the most important species in forensic contexts and a potential myiasis agent, the expansion of
C. albiceps
to new locations cannot be neglected, and its expansion must be carefully monitored. |
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ISSN: | 1619-0033 1314-2488 |
DOI: | 10.3897/neobiota.85.96687 |