Efficient Splitting Simulation for Blackout Analysis

The analysis of severe blackouts has become an essential part of transmission grid planning and operation. This may include evaluation of rare-event probabilities, which can be difficult to estimate. While simulation offers flexibility to model large complex systems, efficiency remains a big concern...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inIEEE transactions on power systems Vol. 30; no. 4; pp. 1775 - 1783
Main Authors Sing-Po Wang, Chen, Argon, Chih-Wen Liu, Chun-Hung Chen, Shortle, John, Jin-Yi Wu
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published IEEE 01.07.2015
Subjects
Analytical models
Blackout
cascading failure
Computational modeling
Numerical models
Power grids
Power system faults
Power system protection
rare-event probability
Resource management
stochastic simulation
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Summary:The analysis of severe blackouts has become an essential part of transmission grid planning and operation. This may include evaluation of rare-event probabilities, which can be difficult to estimate. While simulation offers flexibility to model large complex systems, efficiency remains a big concern when estimating very small probabilities. This paper presents an effective simulation technique to evaluate rare-event probabilities associated with cascading blackouts in an electric grid. We test our technique on an IEEE 118-bus electric network and show that it can dramatically improve simulation efficiency. We also demonstrate that the proposed technique can effectively locate vulnerable links. These are links whose failures lead to the highest probabilities of a blackout event.
ISSN:0885-8950
1558-0679
DOI:10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2359920