Development path of electric vehicles in China under environmental and energy security constraints

• Published in: Resources, conservation and recycling Vol. 143; pp. 17 - 26
• Main Authors: Zhili, Du, Boqiang, Lin, Chunxu, Guan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.04.2019
• Subjects: automobiles; China; climate change; electric vehicles; Electric vehicles (EV); energy conservation; energy efficiency; Environmental and energy security constraints; environmental protection; industry; issues and policy; Logistic model; logit analysis; oils; ownership; Scenario analysis; China; Environmental and energy security constraints; Scenario analysis; Logistic model; Electric vehicles (EV)
• ISSN: 0921-3449; 1879-0658
• DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.12.007

•Extended Logistic model is used to forecast future car ownership in China.•Analyze the medium-term development path of electric vehicles from two aspects: environment and energy security constraints.•Examine the change of electric vehicles developing path in different scenarios. Automobile industry is one of the key industries of the economy and plays an important role in terms of social development. The new energy automobile industry is a strategic emerging industry, which is a major upgrading and transformation development based on driving technology. It is also an effective measure to promote energy saving and emission reduction. At present, China's environmental problems and energy security issues have become increasingly serious. Therefore, developing new energy efficient vehicles is an important breakthrough for energy security, climate change, environmental protection, and structural upgrading. In this paper, we use the extended Logistic model to forecast future car ownership in China. We also calculate the total amount of oil consumed by China's auto sector. Again, we analyze the medium-term development path of electric vehicles from two aspects: environment and energy security constraints. In addition, this paper examines the change in electric vehicles developing path in different scenarios. Based on the discussions of this paper, a theoretical basis and policy support for the promotion of electric vehicles in China are provided.