Utility of Particle Swarm Optimization in Statistical Population Reconstruction

• Published in: Mathematics (Basel) Vol. 11; no. 4; p. 827
• Main Author: Berg, Sergey S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.02.2023
• Subjects: abundance estimation; Accuracy; Age; age-at-harvest; Analysis; Animal populations; Biotelemetry; Case studies; Estimates; harvest mortality; Initial conditions; Licenses; Mathematical models; Mathematical optimization; maximum likelihood estimation; Methods; Numerical methods; Optimization; Otters; Parameters; Particle swarm optimization; Population (statistical); population analysis; Reconstruction; Robustness (mathematics); statistical population reconstruction; Wildlife management; Indiana; United States > US
• ISSN: 2227-7390; 2227-7390
• DOI: 10.3390/math11040827

Statistical population reconstruction models based on maximum likelihood and minimum chi-square objective functions provide a robust and versatile approach to estimating the demographic dynamics of harvested populations of wildlife. These models employ numerical optimization techniques to determine which set of model parameters best describes observed age-at-harvest, catch-effort, and other auxiliary field data. Although numerous optimization methods have been used in the past, the benefits of using particle swarm optimization (PSO) have yet to be explored. Using a harvested population of North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) in Indiana as a case study, we investigated the performance of population reconstruction using particle swarm optimization, spectral projected gradient (SPG), Nelder–Mead, and Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) methods. We used Monte Carlo studies to simulate populations under a wide range of conditions to compare the relative performance of population reconstruction models using each of the four optimization methods. We found that using particle swarm optimization consistently and significantly improved model stability and precision when compared with other numerical optimization methods that may be used in statistical population reconstruction. Given that these models are frequently used to guide management decisions and set harvest limits, we encourage management agencies to adopt this more precise method of estimating model parameters and corresponding population abundance. These results illustrate the benefits of using particle swarm optimization, caution against relying on the results of population reconstruction based on optimization methods that are highly dependent on initial conditions, and reinforce the need to ensure model convergence to a global rather than a local maximum.