The 3-Hour-Interval Prediction of Ground-Level Temperature in South Korea Using Dynamic Linear Models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input value...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inAdvances in atmospheric sciences Vol. 20; no. 4; pp. 575 - 582
Main Authors Sohn, Keon-Tae, Rha, Deuk-Kyun, Seo, Young-Kyung
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Springer Nature B.V 01.07.2003
Dept. of Statistics, Pusan National University, 30 Jangjeon-dong, Geumjung-gu, Pusan 609-735, Korea%Korea Meteorological Administration, 460-18 Shindaebang-dong, Tongjak-gu, Seoul 156-720, Korea
Subjects
Kalman filters
Mathematical models
Meteorology
Modelling
Numerical models
Predictions
Systematic errors
Temperature
Weather forecasting
动力学线性模型
地表温度
天气预报
温度预报
短期间隔预报
系统误差
South Korea
temperature forecasting
systematic error
dynamic linear model
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Summary:The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.
Bibliography:P457.3
11-1925/O4
ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 23
ISSN:0256-1530
1861-9533
DOI:10.1007/BF02915500