Hydrological prediction in a non-stationary world

The paper discusses evidence that common assumptions in the analysis of hydrological time series (homogeneous variability in random fluctuations about a constant mean value) may not be appropriate for some South American drainage basins. Relatively rapid changes have occurred, and are occurring, as...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inHydrology and earth system sciences Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 408 - 414
Main Author Clarke, R.T
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Copernicus Publications 01.01.2007
Subjects
agricultural land
deforestation
Freshwater
land use change
urbanization
watershed hydrology
watersheds
South America
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Summary:The paper discusses evidence that common assumptions in the analysis of hydrological time series (homogeneous variability in random fluctuations about a constant mean value) may not be appropriate for some South American drainage basins. Relatively rapid changes have occurred, and are occurring, as a consequence of replacing mature forest by short crops and urban development. Some research claims to have detected non-linear trends in streamflow in rivers draining the south-eastern part of the sub-continent, together with decadal fluctuations and interannual peaks at ENSO timescales. The paper discusses the implications of such changes for hydrological practices now in widespread and largely unquestioned use.
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ISSN:1027-5606
1607-7938
1607-7938
DOI:10.5194/hess-11-408-2007