Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models

Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inNature climate change Vol. 6; no. 11; pp. 986 - 991
Main Authors Fischer, E M, Knutti, R
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group 01.11.2016
Subjects
Climate change
Climate science
General circulation models
Precipitation
Trends
United States > US
Europe
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways: heavy precipitation intensification is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and model predictions made decades ago. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/nclimate3110