Business scenario evaluation using Monte Carlo simulation on qualitative and quantitative hybrid model

• Published in: Electrical engineering in Japan Vol. 170; no. 3; pp. 9 - 18
• Main Authors: Samejima, Masaki, Akiyoshi, Masanori, Mitsukuni, Koshichiro, Komoda, Norihisa
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company 01.02.2010
• Subjects: Business; Computer simulation; Electrical engineering; Landmarks; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo methods; Monte Carlo simulation; Propagation; qualitative and quantitative hybrid model; Risk; scenario planning
• ISSN: 0424-7760; 1520-6416
• DOI: 10.1002/eej.20950

We propose a business scenario evaluation method using a qualitative/quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate business factors with qualitative causal relations, we introduce statistical values based on propagation and combination of effects of business factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of each factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we determine an effect of each arc using contribution degree and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models, it is confirmed that there are no differences between results obtained by quantitative relations and results obtained by the proposed method at the risk rate of 5%. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 170(3): 9–18, 2010; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20950