Effect of industrial transfer on carbon lock-in: a spatial econometric analysis of Chinese cities

• Published in: Journal of environmental planning and management Vol. 65; no. 6; pp. 1024 - 1055
• Main Authors: Xu, Yingzhi, Dong, Biying, Chen, Yan, Qin, Hanwen
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Routledge 12.05.2022; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Autoregressive models; Carbon; carbon lock-in; Carbon sinks; China; Econometrics; Economic analysis; Economic development; Economic growth; Economics; Emissions; Energy; Fossil fuels; Fossils; industrial transfer; industry; Measurement; Openness; panel threshold model; Provinces; Spatial analysis; spatial autoregressive model; Spillover effect; Technological progress; threshold models; trade; China
• ISSN: 0964-0568; 1360-0559; 1360-0559
• DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2021.1919067

To explore the potential effect of industrial transfer on carbon lock-in in China, this paper constructed the measurement formula of industrial transfer based on output and demand, and calculated carbon lock-in according to carbon sink and carbon emissions. By means of a spatial autoregressive model and a panel threshold model, we discussed the spatial spillover of carbon lock-in and the effect of industrial transfer. The findings are as follows: (1) The level of carbon lock-in does have a positive spatial spillover effect between economic neighboring provinces. (2) The effect of industrial transfer on carbon lock-in depends on industry characteristics. (3) Technological progress has direct and indirect carbon unlocking effects, energy structure, trade openness and increased fiscal expenditure exacerbate the carbon lock-in dilemma, while economic growth and carbon lock-in show an inverted "U" relationship. (4) There is a non-linear relationship between industrial transfer and carbon lock-in. Finally, we propose some recommendations to reduce dependence on high-carbon fossil energy and speed up the process of carbon unlocking in China.