Analysis of mortality in Parkinson disease in China: Exploration of recent and future trends

• Published in: Aging medicine Vol. 7; no. 4; pp. 490 - 498
• Main Authors: Lan, Jinxin, Ren, Yifan, Song, Ge, Liu, Lu, Li, Mingyu, Zhang, Renmu, Yin, Chunyu, Zhou, Hua, Zhang, Xiangyuan, Lv, Bin, Ma, Yaqi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Australia John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.08.2024; John Wiley and Sons Inc; Wiley
• Subjects: Aging; China; Health surveillance; joinpoint regression model; Mortality; Original; Parkinson disease; Parkinson's disease; Trends; China; Parkinson disease; mortality; joinpoint regression model; aging; China
• ISSN: 2475-0360; 2475-0360
• DOI: 10.1002/agm2.12354

Objectives Parkinson disease (PD) is the third leading cause of mortality among middle‐aged and older individuals in China. This study aimed to explore the trends and distribution features of PD mortality in China from 2013 to 2021 and make predictions for the next few decades. Methods Relevant data were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Disease Surveillance Point system. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate trends. The R software was used to predict future trends. Results Age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of PD increased from 0.59 per 100,000 individuals to 1.22 per 100,000 individuals from 2013 to 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 9.50 (95% CI: 8.24–10.78). The all‐age ASMR of PD were higher in male individuals than in female individuals, and ASMR increased with age. The number of deaths and ASMR increased gradually from west to east and from rural to urban areas. Furthermore, ASMR is expected to increase to 2.66 per 100,000 individuals by 2040. Conclusions The heightened focus on the ASMR of PD among male individuals, urban areas, eastern China, and individuals aged ≥85 years has become a key determinant in further decreasing mortality, thereby exhibiting novel challenges to effective strategies for disease prevention and control. The age‐standardized mortality of PD increased from 2013 to 2019 in China, and this upward trend will continue by 2024. Males, living in high SDI areas, and advanced age (above 55 years old) are characteristics that contribute to increased mortality. Primary prevention strategies for high‐risk groups should be taken.