Reliability Analysis of an Air Traffic Network: From Network Structure to Transport Function

• Published in: Applied sciences Vol. 10; no. 9; p. 3168
• Main Authors: Li, Shanmei, Zhang, Zhaoyue, Cheng, Xiaochun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.05.2020
• Subjects: Air traffic control; Air traffic controllers; Air traffic management; air traffic network; Aircraft accidents & safety; Aircraft piloting; Airports; Alliances; Aviation; capacity; Composite materials; Conflict resolution; Connectivity; Efficiency; Evaluation; Federal agencies; Fuzzy sets; Historical account; Human error; Management; Network reliability; Peak hour traffic; Probability; Qualitative analysis; reliability; Reliability (Engineering); Reliability analysis; Statistical analysis; Structural reliability; Structure-function relationships; System reliability; Systems stability; Traffic assignment; Traffic capacity; Traffic congestion; Traffic management; Traffic models; Traffic planning; Transportation networks; Transportation planning; Travel time; Uncertainty; uncertainty transformation model; United States
• ISSN: 2076-3417; 2076-3417
• DOI: 10.3390/app10093168

To scientifically evaluate the reliability of air traffic networks, a definition of air traffic network reliability is proposed in this paper. Calculation models of the connectivity reliability, travel-time reliability, and capacity reliability of the air traffic network are constructed based on collected historical data, considering the current status and the predicted future evolution trends. Considering the randomness and fuzziness of factors affecting reliability, a comprehensive evaluation model of air traffic networks based on the uncertainty transformation model is established. Finally, the reliability of the US air traffic network is analyzed based on data published by the Transportation Statistics Bureau of the US Department of Transportation. The results show that the connectivity reliability is 0.4073, the capacity reliability is 0.8300, the travel-time reliability is 0.9180, and the overall reliability evaluated is “relatively reliable”. This indicates that although the US structural reliability is relatively low, the US air traffic management is very efficient, and the overall reliability is strong. The reliability in nonpeak hours is much higher than that in peak hours. The method can identify air traffic network reliability efficiently. The main factors affecting reliability can be found in the calculation process, and are beneficial for air traffic planning and management. The empirical analysis also reflects that the evaluation model based on the uncertainty transformation model can transform the quantitative data of network structure and traffic function into the qualitative language of reliability.