Elevation dependency of future degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

• Published in: Environmental research letters Vol. 18; no. 7; pp. 75005 - 75015
• Main Authors: Zhang, Guofei, Mu, Cuicui, Nan, Zhuotong, Wu, Xiaodong, Cheng, Guodong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.07.2023
• Subjects: Air temperature; Altitude; Aridity; Climate change; Degradation; Elevation; elevation-dependent degradation; Global warming; Permafrost; permafrost degradation; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; Soil degradation; SSP scenarios; three-dimensional characteristics; Tibetan Plateau
• ISSN: 1748-9326; 1748-9326
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace0d1

Abstract Global warming has caused widespread permafrost degradation, but the geographic regularity of permafrost degradation is unknown. Here, we investigated the three-dimensional features of future permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our findings show that permafrost degradation under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) has obvious three-dimensional characteristics. In comparison to latitude and aridity, permafrost degradation is closely related to elevation, i.e. it slows with elevation, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent degradation. The pattern of elevation-dependent degradation is consistent across four subzones and is strongly linked to thermal conditions that vary with elevation. Under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, remarkable elevation-dependent warming (EDW) is observed at 3600–4900 m, but changes in mean annual ground temperature of permafrost and EDW as altitude rises are anti-phase. Under any SSP, the magnitude of mean annual air temperature along altitude belts determines the degree of permafrost degradation ( R 2 > 0.90). This research provides new insight on the evolution of permafrost.