The impact of declining birth rates on future infrastructure maintenance costs per capita

• Published in: Journal of economic studies (Bradford) Vol. 50; no. 6; pp. 1121 - 1129
• Main Authors: McCollough, John D., Sargsyan, Gevorg, Luo, Zhe
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Glasgow Emerald Publishing Limited 15.08.2023; Emerald Group Publishing Limited
• Subjects: Aging; Birth rate; Childbirth & labor; Developed countries; Developing countries; Economic analysis; Economic development; Economic growth; Economics; Fertility; Foreign labor; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Immigration; Industrialized nations; Infrastructure; Labor force; Labor shortages; LDCs; Literature reviews; Maintenance costs; Older people; Per capita; Population decline; Population growth; Wages & salaries; South Korea; Singapore; Europe; Japan; Fertility; Declining population; Labor shortages; Economic impact; Birth rates; Infrastructure maintenance costs; Network-type infrastructure
• ISSN: 0144-3585; 1758-7387
• DOI: 10.1108/JES-05-2022-0299

PurposeThis paper focuses on one vital consequence which is that future infrastructure maintenance cost per capita will increase. Using a sample of 23 developed countries, this paper looks at rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2020 versus rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2100. This analysis can be applied to most other infrastructure maintenance costs in the future.Design/methodology/approachHowever, this paper focuses on one vital consequence which is that future infrastructure maintenance cost per capita will increase. Using a sample of 23 developed countries, this paper looks at rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2020 versus rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2100. This analysis can be applied to most other infrastructure maintenance costs in the future.FindingsThe findings show that trail line maintenance costs per capita in the year 2100 will increase significantly for most developed countries.Research limitations/implicationsThis research shows the negative consequences of declining birth rates in a very vital and important area.Practical implicationsDespite declining birth rates and population decline in the future, many infrastructure systems still need to be maintained.Social implicationsMaintaining the infrastructure will extract increasing amounts of vital national resources away from other societal concerns.Originality/valueFrom an extensive literature review, very little, if any, has been written on this subject. Yet, this topic is highly important and will continue to get more focus in the future.