Freight Transport Demand Forecasting in Urban Logistics Planning: A Case Study of Yiwu City

Freight transport demand forecasting as one of the basis in urban logistics planning, is not only an important premise of designing a variety of logistics development policies and infrastructure constructions, but also a key indicator to measure whether the logistics planning is reasonable. This pap...

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Published inApplied Mechanics and Materials Vol. 505-506; no. Advances in Transportation; pp. 915 - 921
Main Authors Chen, Chuan, Sun, Shi Chao, Duan, Zheng Yu
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Zurich Trans Tech Publications Ltd 01.01.2014
Subjects
Demand
Demand analysis
Extrapolation
Forecasting
Freight transportation
Logistics
Mathematical models
Trends
Yiwu City
Urban Logistics Planning
Freight Transport Demand Forecasting
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Summary:Freight transport demand forecasting as one of the basis in urban logistics planning, is not only an important premise of designing a variety of logistics development policies and infrastructure constructions, but also a key indicator to measure whether the logistics planning is reasonable. This paper addresses the methods of the freight transport demand forecasting in urban logistics planning based on a case study of Yiwu city. Considering the change of long-term trend emphatically, conventional trend extrapolation method, regression analysis method, elasticity coefficient method, linear exponential smoothing method and grey model are applied to predict the logistics demand of Yiwu city respectively. Then the results of five kinds of forecasting methods are analyzed to obtain the final forecasting logistics demand.
Bibliography:Selected, peer reviewed papers from the 3rd International Conference on Civil Engineering and Transportation (ICCET 2013), December 14-15, 2013, Kunming, China
ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 23
ISBN:9783038350064
3038350060
ISSN:1660-9336
1662-7482
1662-7482
DOI:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.505-506.915