Integrating fuzzy analytic hierarchy process into a multi-objective optimisation model for planning sustainable oil palm value chains

• Published in: Food and bioproducts processing Vol. 119; pp. 48 - 74
• Main Authors: Tapia, John Frederick D., Samsatli, Sheila
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Rugby Elsevier B.V 01.01.2020; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Agriculture; Analytic hierarchy process; Best practices; Biodiversity; Biodiversity loss; Constraint modelling; Crude oil; Decision analysis; decision support systems; Economics; Elaeis guineensis; energy; Environment-food-energy-water nexus; environmental assessment; Environmental factors; Environmental impact; Experts; exports; fats and oils industry; food transport; Frameworks; Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; Fuzzy logic; imports; issues and policy; Linear programming; Malaysia; Mathematical models; Mixed integer; Multiple objective analysis; Oil; Oil and gas industry; Oil palm value chains; Optimisation; Optimization; Palm oil; palm oils; planning; Plantations; Process systems engineering; Studies; supply chain; Sustainability; Sustainable palm oil; Transport; uncertainty; Value engineering; Vegetable oils; wastes; Malaysia; Optimisation; Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; Sustainable palm oil; Oil palm value chains; Decision analysis; Process systems engineering; Environment-food-energy-water nexus
• ISSN: 0960-3085; 1744-3571
• DOI: 10.1016/j.fbp.2019.10.002

•Expert-based optimisation (MILP) planning model for oil palm value chains.•Incorporates expert value judgment in planning and design under uncertainty.•Maximises economic benefits while minimising negative environmental impacts & risk of biodiversity loss.•Systematic approach for dealing with sustainability issues in oil palm value chains.•Application to different scenarios for the Malaysian palm oil industry. This study presents a novel integrated decision model for optimal planning oil palm value chains (OPVC) incorporating decisions to minimise biodiversity losses by limiting the expansion of oil palm plantations as needed and generate value from its waste products. The model can answer the following types of question: What is the best way to deploy OPVC in terms of both economic and environmental factors wherein objectives are integrated systematically by experts? How can the demands for palm oil and palm-based materials and energy products be satisfied with and without considering additional land for plantation? Which conversion technologies will be needed, when and where should these be deployed? How can the resources be managed subject to utilisation, production, import, export and transportation constraints? The planning model developed involves two components: (1) a decision framework using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to incorporate experts’ knowledge in planning and design under uncertainty and (2) a mixed integer linear program (MILP) to determine the optimal expert-based OPVC design. The framework was applied to different scenarios for the Malaysian palm oil industry. Results show that the demand for crude palm oil (CPO) in Malaysia can be fully satisfied while the international demand can be satisfied by about 60% in 2050. However, in order to minimise environmental impacts and risks of biodiversity losses, the contribution of Malaysia towards satisfying global demand for palm oil should be kept to a minimum. Moreover, the current plantations can satisfy future CPO demand after 5 to 10 years, after which best practices to improve palm oil yield and alternatives comparable to palm oil will be needed. The framework can potentially contribute to the development of better policies in the future through the proposed systematic approach in dealing with sustainability issues in the palm oil industry.