A Novel Twin Support Vector Regression Model for Wind Speed Time-Series Interval Prediction

• Published in: Energies (Basel) Vol. 16; no. 15; p. 5656
• Main Authors: Fu, Xinyue, Feng, Zhongkai, Yao, Xinru, Liu, Wenjie
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.08.2023
• Subjects: Algorithms; artificial intelligence; Energy consumption; Genetic algorithms; Machine learning; Methods; Mold; Neural networks; Optimization algorithms; Time series; twin support vector regression; variational mode decomposition; Wavelet transforms; Wind power; wind speed interval prediction
• ISSN: 1996-1073; 1996-1073
• DOI: 10.3390/en16155656

Although the machine-learning model demonstrates high accuracy in wind speed prediction, it struggles to accurately depict the fluctuation range of the predicted values due to the inherent uncertainty in wind speed sequences. To address this limitation and enhance the reliability, we propose an effective wind speed interval prediction model that combines twin support vector regression (TSVR), variational mode decomposition (VMD), and the slime mould algorithm (SMA). In our methodology, the complex wind speed series is decomposed into multiple relatively stable subsequences using the VMD method. The principal component and residual series are then subject to interval prediction using the TSVR model, while the remaining components undergo point prediction. The SMA method is employed to search for optimal parameter combinations. The prediction interval of wind speed is obtained by aggregating the forecasting results of all TSVR models for each subseries. Our proposed model has demonstrated superior performance in various applications. It ensures that the wind speed value falls within the designated interval range while achieving the narrowest prediction interval. For instance, in the spring dataset with 1-period, we obtained a predicted interval with a prediction intervals coverage probability (PICP) value of 0.9791 and prediction interval normalized range width (PINRW) value of 0.0641. This outperforms other comparative models and significantly enhances its practical application value. After adding the residual interval prediction model, the reliability of the prediction interval is significantly improved. As a result, this study presents a novel twin support vector regression model as a valuable approach for multi-step wind speed interval prediction.