Ten Years On: A Review of the First Global Conservation Horizon Scan

• Published in: Trends in ecology & evolution (Amsterdam) Vol. 34; no. 2; pp. 139 - 153
• Main Authors: Sutherland, William J., Fleishman, Erica, Clout, Mick, Gibbons, David W., Lickorish, Fiona, Peck, Lloyd S., Pretty, Jules, Spalding, Mark, Ockendon, Nancy
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2019
• Subjects: biodiversity; environment; foresight; forward look; futures; prioritisation; prioritisation; forward look; environment; biodiversity; futures; foresight
• ISSN: 0169-5347; 1872-8383
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.003

Our first horizon scan, conducted in 2009, aimed to identify novel but poorly known issues with potentially significant effects on global conservation of biological diversity. Following completion of the tenth annual scan, we reviewed the 15 topics identified a decade ago and assessed their development in the scientific literature and news media. Five topics, including microplastic pollution, synthetic meat, and environmental applications of mobile-sensing technology, appeared to have had widespread salience and effects. The effects of six topics were moderate, three have not emerged, and the effects of one topic were low. The awareness of, and involvement in, these issues by 12 conservation organisations has increased for most issues since 2009. We review the first horizon scan of global conservation issues, conducted 10 years ago. Five of the 15 issues identified have shown a major increase in importance since 2009. Six other issues appear to have developed to a moderate extent. The proportion of conservation organisations working on nine of the identified topics has increased, but for six topics has decreased. We find little evidence for a relationship between the expertise of participants and the topics that were identified across 10 years of horizon scans. We hope that this review article encourages more widespread adoption of horizon scanning, as well as further evaluation of its effectiveness.