Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: A novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study

We have proposed a novel, accurate low-cost method to estimate the incubation-period distribution of COVID-19 by conducting a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study. We identified those presymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and followed them until the development of s...

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Published inScience Advances Vol. 6; no. 33; p. eabc1202
Main Authors Qin, Jing, You, Chong, Lin, Qiushi, Hu, Taojun, Yu, Shicheng, Zhou, Xiao-Hua
Format Journal Article Web Resource
LanguageEnglish
Published United States American Association for the Advancement of Science 01.08.2020
Subjects
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Betacoronavirus
Child
Child, Preschool
China - epidemiology
Coronavirus
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronavirus Infections - virology
COVID-19
Cross-Sectional Studies
Epidemiology
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Infectious Disease Incubation Period
Male
Mathematics
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
Pneumonia, Viral - virology
SARS-CoV-2
SciAdv r-articles
Young Adult
China
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Summary:We have proposed a novel, accurate low-cost method to estimate the incubation-period distribution of COVID-19 by conducting a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study. We identified those presymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and followed them until the development of symptoms. The renewal process was adopted by considering the incubation period as a renewal and the duration between departure and symptoms onset as a forward time. Such a method enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and using the readily available data. The estimated median incubation period was 7.76 days [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.02 to 8.53], and the 90th percentile was 14.28 days (95% CI: 13.64 to 14.90). By including the possibility that a small portion of patients may contract the disease on their way out of Wuhan, the estimated probability that the incubation period is longer than 14 days was between 5 and 10%.
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Joint first author.
ISSN:2375-2548
2375-2548
DOI:10.1126/sciadv.abc1202