Options for ASEAN trade expansion: Within, plus three or six, European Union or the United States?

The ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have pursued trade agreements with major trade partners (Plus Three—China, Japan and Korea; and Plus Six—Plus Three, Australia, New Zealand and India). The recent ASEAN move towards further economic integration suggests p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inWorld economy Vol. 44; no. 5; pp. 1177 - 1204
Main Authors Beckman, Jayson, Gopinath, Munisamy, Daugherty, Kamron
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oxford Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01.05.2021
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Subjects
Agreements
Agriculture
Analysis
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
computable general equilibrium
Economic analysis
Economic integration
Economic opportunities
Equilibrium
International economic integration
International trade
Options (Finance)
Plus Six
Plus Three
Spillover effect
Tariffs
technology
Trade agreements
trade facilitation
Trading
Welfare
India
United States > US
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Summary:The ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have pursued trade agreements with major trade partners (Plus Three—China, Japan and Korea; and Plus Six—Plus Three, Australia, New Zealand and India). The recent ASEAN move towards further economic integration suggests potential future agreements with other major trade partners. This study examines the economic opportunities for such expansion, focusing on several options for ASEAN: removing tariffs within the trading bloc, removing the remaining tariffs on trade with the six countries that they already have trade agreements with or more external options (agreements with either the EU or the US). We use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to examine these options, highlighting changes to both agriculture and non‐agriculture. Agriculture is the biggest beneficiary when considering an agreement with the EU or Plus Six, while non‐agriculture gains the most in an agreement with Plus Three or the US. Deeper integration through trade facilitation and realising technological spillovers increase welfare gains from select agreements.
Bibliography:The findings and conclusions in this publication are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA, USITC or US government determination or policy.
Funding information
Gopinath acknowledges support from the UGA Agricultural Experiment Station. This research was supported in part by the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.
ISSN:0378-5920
1467-9701
DOI:10.1111/twec.13040