Potential distribution of an epiphytic bryophyte depends on climate and forest continuity

• Published in: Global and planetary change Vol. 193; p. 103270
• Main Authors: Wierzcholska, Sylwia, Dyderski, Marcin K., Jagodziński, Andrzej M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.10.2020
• Subjects: bioclimatic indexes; Bryophyta; climate; Climate change; Dicranum viride; epiphytes; Europe; forest ecosystems; forests; geographical distribution; Habitat suitability; habitats; Interspecific dependence; Mosses; Scandinavia; Species distribution model; temperature; Western European region; Scandinavia; Europe; Western European region; Interspecific dependence; Species distribution model; Climate change; Habitat suitability; Dicranum viride; Mosses
• ISSN: 0921-8181; 1872-6364
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103270

Woodland-specialist epiphytic bryophytes are both a threatened ecological guild of forest species as well as a precise bioindicator of conservation value of forest ecosystems. However, due to lack of data on distribution, there is no information about their potential reaction to predicted climate change. For that reason we aimed to evaluate impact of climate change and forest continuity on distributions of an umbrella species of woodland-specialist epiphytic bryophytes. We compiled available data on Dicranum viride distributions in Europe, as this species is a subject of Natura 2000 conservation. We provided a species distribution model (developed using MaxEnt) using bioclimatic variables and a forest continuity map for Europe. We evaluated predicted changes in potential distribution for 2061–2080 using three climate change scenarios. We also assessed substratum preferences of this species. Our study revealed that forest continuity is the most important predictor of D. viride occurrence, and next were mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Projected climate change would lead to small losses of D. viride habitat suitability in Southern and Western Europe and increases in Scandinavia, under the assumption of constant forest continuity. Due to limited dispersal capabilities and specific habitat requirements, forest continuity and suitable forest assemblages/vegetation types play a superior role in maintaining woodland-specialist epiphytic bryophytes. For that reason loss of mature forest ecosystems is a more important threat to epiphytic bryophytes than climate change. •Impact of climate change on epiphytic bryophytes (EB) is weakly recognized.•We evaluated a species distribution model of an umbrella species of EB – Dicranum viride.•In contrast to bioclimatic variables, forest continuity influenced EB the most.•We predicted the future potential distributions of the species studied.•Conservation of EB should focus on forest continuity more than climate change.