Selection of the best ARMAX model for forecasting energy demand: case study of the residential and commercial sectors in Iran

• Published in: Energy efficiency Vol. 9; no. 2; pp. 339 - 352
• Main Authors: Shakouri G., Hamed, Kazemi, Aliyeh
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.04.2016; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Case studies; Commercial real estate; Economics and Management; Energy; Energy consumption; Energy demand; Energy Efficiency; Energy Policy; Energy prices; Environment; Environmental Economics; Estimating techniques; Forecasting; Households; International; Original Article; Population; Renewable and Green Energy; Studies; Sustainable Development; Value added; Variables; Iran; ISW, Iran; Fuzzy decision making; Residential and commercial sectors; Model selection; Energy demand forecasting
• ISSN: 1570-646X; 1570-6478
• DOI: 10.1007/s12053-015-9368-9

The main purpose of the present study is to develop a simple yet proper top-down model for forecasting the energy demand of the residential and commercial sectors in Iran. This model can be used as a tool of scenario analysis to predict the emerging energy demand in future. The proposed model would be systematically developed and selected based on various quantified exogenous variables. For this purpose, a certain model out of a collection of 41,472 parallel models with different inputs and dynamics is chosen as the most appropriate model. According to the logical conjunctive relationships between the variables, the structure of all competing models is established to log-linear . Different possible combinations of various measures for the exogenous variables generate parallel models. Then, an automated fuzzy decision-making (FDM) process determines the best model. Finally, defining several scenarios, the energy demand of the residential and commercial sectors in Iran for the period of 2013 to 2021 is forecasted. The results showed that despite of de-subsidization, which is included by a dummy variable, the energy demand will grow by an average rate of about 3 % annually.