Revisiting the relation between economic growth and the environment; a global assessment of deforestation, pollution and carbon emission

• Published in: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews Vol. 114; p. 109221
• Main Authors: Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes, Chamorro, Andres, Spencer, Phoebe, Koomen, Eric, Dogo, Harun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2019
• Subjects: Air pollution; Carbon emission; Deforestation; Economic development; Environmental Kuznets curves; Machine learning; Deforestation; Carbon emission; Air pollution; Environmental Kuznets curves; Economic development; Machine learning
• ISSN: 1364-0321; 1879-0690
• DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.028

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 aim on one hand at inclusive growth and eradicating poverty, and on the other at preserving environments. The relation between development and the environment has been studied extensively since the 1990s, documenting inverted U-shaped relations between per capita income and indicators of environmental degradation. This paper revisits the issue with machine learning techniques and novel disaggregate data to model these relationships heterogeneously across economic indicators. Results suggest that development gradually improves the efficiency of consuming the earth's nonrenewable resources, but increased efficiency alone is not sufficient to offset growth in scale. Development shifts reliance on one nonrenewable source to another, and on average we find successive inverted U-shapes in deforestation, air pollution and carbon intensities, followed by a J-shape in per capita carbon output. Local economic circumstances further determine the shape, amplitude, and location of tipping points in environmental output. The general implications of the estimated dynamics are explored by extrapolating environmental output to 2030 under simplistic scenario's. The results are a reminder that immediate, and sustained global efforts are required to preserve our environment. •Development gradually improves efficiency of consuming natural resources.•Increased efficiency alone is not sufficient to offset growth in scale.•Results show inverted U-shapes for deforestation, air pollution and carbon intensity.•But a J-shape is found in per capita carbon output.•Local economic circumstances further determine shape, amplitude, and location of tipping points.