Critical success factors for government-led foresight

• Published in: Science & public policy Vol. 37; no. 1; pp. 31 - 40
• Main Authors: Calof, Jonathan, Smith, Jack E
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Beech Tree Publishing 01.02.2010
• Subjects: Adaptation to change; Forecasts; Government programmes; Methodology; Policy research; Research programmes
• ISSN: 0302-3427; 1471-5430
• DOI: 10.3152/030234210X484784

This paper reports on an integrated research program involving three related studies that examined successful foresight programs. It analyzes the key factors that appear to determine whether or not foresight, once launched by a government, can be successful. The study was performed by a team of researchers in Canada in the period 2005–2007. It found eight key factors, beyond the usual ones associated with the application of leading edge methods. The overall conclusion is that the methodology, appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient factors to explain the success of foresight programs. The interview results indicate that success is ultimately defined as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy, and as the growth of the foresight function. Taken together, the results should help organizations establish the parameters for a successful foresight program.