Semiquantitative assessment of regional climate vulnerability : The north-rhine westphalia study

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 76; no. 3-4; pp. 265 - 290
• Main Authors: KROPP, J. P, BLOCK, A, REUSSWIG, F, ZICKFELD, K, SCHELLNHUBER, H. J
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer 01.06.2006; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adaptation; Climate change; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Cluster analysis; Disasters; Earth, ocean, space; Environmental conditions; Environmental impact; Environmental policy; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Inventory; Meteorology; Precipitation; Regions; Scandals; Central Europe; Germany; North Rhine-Westphalia Germany; Rhine Valley; Cluster analysis; Meteorological phenomenon; Europe; Regional scope; Natural disaster; vulnerability; troposphere; Dynamical climatology; Self-organising feature maps; environment impact; climate modification; extreme value; global change; Risk assessment; warming; Economic impact; statistical analysis; Social aspect; Ecological disaster; pattern recognition
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-9037-7

Climate change will bring about a sea change in environmental conditions worldwide during the 21th century. In particular, most of the extreme events and natural disaster regimes prevailing today will be transformed, thus exposing innumerable natural and socio-economic systems to novel risks that will be difficult to cope with. This crucial component of vulnerability to anthropogenic interference with the climate system is analyzed using powerful pattern recognition methods from statistical physics. The analysis is of intermediate character, with respect to spatial scale and complexity level respectively, and therefore allows a rapid regional assessment for any area of interest. The approach is based on a comprehensive inventory of all those ecological and socioeconomic assets in a region that are significantly sensitive to extreme weather (and climate) events. Advanced cluster analysis techniques are then employed to derive from the inventory a set of thematic maps that succinctly summarize -- and visualize -- the differential vulnerabilities characteristic of the area in question. This information can prepare decision makers and the general public for the climate change hazards to be faced and facilitates a precautionary climate change risk management. The semiquantitative methodology described and applied here can be easily extended to other aspects of climate change assessment. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]