Modelling the future of Boswellia papyrifera population and its frankincense production

• Published in: Journal of arid environments Vol. 105; pp. 33 - 40
• Main Authors: Lemenih, M., Arts, B., Wiersum, K.F., Bongers, F.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2014; Elsevier
• Subjects: Abergelle; Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biological and medical sciences; cover; Deforestation; dry forest; economic-systems; ethiopia; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects. Techniques; land-use; Metema; metema district; Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...); Participatory future scenario; Reforestation; stella; Synecology; Terrestrial ecosystems; tree size; Deforestation; Participatory future scenario; Reforestation; Abergelle; Metema; Arid environment; Dicotyledones; Angiospermae; Spermatophyta; Burseraceae; Afforestation; Modeling
• ISSN: 0140-1963; 1095-922X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.02.006

Sustainable production of the aromatic forest product frankincense is at stake due to rapid decline in its resource base. This affects livelihoods of thousands of citizens and several global industries. A system dynamic model approach is used to predict the future population of Boswellia papyrifera trees and its frankincense yield for three decades (2010–2040) in Metema and Abergelle districts in northern Ethiopia. Data from studies on the ecology, distribution, rate of deforestation and participatory future scenario development were put together and analysed using a model platform developed with STELLA. Four alternative scenarios namely Business As Usual (BAU); Low Intervention Scenario (LS), High Intervention Scenario (HS) and Stabilization Scenario (SS) were used. The model predicts 3%, 8% and 37% of the current stem population to exist in 2040 under BAU, LS, HS scenarios, respectively in Metema. Similarly, 11%, 13% and 46% stem density is predicted under BAU, LS and HS, respectively for Abergelle. Test of model sensitivity shows adult mortality is the most serious problem facing the resource. Immediate management intervention should focus on reducing adult tree mortality followed by reducing deforestation. Medium and long term interventions need to focus on how to improve recruitment and afforestation/reforestation of the species. •Production of aromatic frankincense is declining and this affects businesses and livelihoods.•Simulated predictions were done combining data from various sources into four alternative future scenarios.•After 30 years very small fractions of current production are expected in all the scenarios.•Concerted efforts from all concerned is needed to ensure sustainable future production.