Agent-based modeling to simulate the dynamics of urban water supply: Climate, population growth, and water shortages

• Published in: Sustainable cities and society Vol. 28; pp. 420 - 434
• Main Authors: Mashhadi Ali, Alireza, Shafiee, M. Ehsan, Berglund, Emily Zechman
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.01.2017
• Subjects: Agent-based modeling; Demand management; Stochastic reconstruction framework; Surface water system; Urban water supply; Urban water supply; Agent-based modeling; Surface water system; Stochastic reconstruction framework; Demand management
• ISSN: 2210-6707; 2210-6715
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2016.10.001

•An agent-based model is created using data for household characteristics and outdoor water use to calculate water demands.•An agent-based model is created to represent utility response to water shortages to enact residential restrictions.•The agent-based model is coupled with reservoir simulation for a case study, and results are compared to historic data.•Sustainability of water policies is evaluated for climate scenarios created using a stochastic reconstruction framework. The sustainability of water resources depends on the dynamic interactions among the environmental, technological, and social characteristics of the water system and local population. These interactions can cause supply-demand imbalances at diverse temporal scales, and the response of consumers to water use regulations impacts future water availability. This research develops a dynamic modeling approach to simulate supply-demand dynamics using an agent-based modeling framework that couple models of consumers and utility managers with water system models. Households are represented as agents, and their water use behaviors are represented as rules. A water utility manager agent enacts water use restrictions, based on fluctuations in the reservoir water storage. Water balance in a reservoir is simulated, and multiple climate scenarios are used to test the sensitivity of water availability to changes in streamflow, precipitation, and temperature. The framework is applied to the water supply system in Raleigh, North Carolina to assess sustainability of drought management plans. Model accuracy is assessed using statistical metrics, and sustainability is calculated for a projected period as the satisfaction or deficit of meeting municipal demands. Multiple climate change scenarios are created by perturbing average monthly values of historical inflow, precipitation, and evapotranspiration data. Results demonstrate the use of the agent-based modeling approach to project the effectiveness of management policies and recommend drought policies for improving the sustainability of urban water resources.