Impact of global warming on meteorological drought: a case study of the Songliao Plain, China

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 146; no. 3-4; pp. 1315 - 1334
• Main Authors: Ari, Guna, Bao, Yongbin, Asi, Hanfu, Zhang, Jiquan, Na, Li, Angge, Lema, Bao, Yulong, Han, Aru, Dong, Zhenhua, ZhijunTong, Liu, Xingpeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 01.11.2021; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Air pollution; Analysis; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Case studies; Center of gravity; Climate change; Climate models; Climate science; Climatology; Disasters; Drought; Drought characteristics; Droughts; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Evapotranspiration; Evapotranspiration-precipitation relationships; Global warming; Intercomparison; Mutation; Natural disasters; Original Paper; Precipitation; Spatial variations; Standardized precipitation index; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Weather; Global warming; Songliao Plain; Drought characteristics; Meteorological drought; SPI; SPEI
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03775-x

Global warming has increased the prevalence and severity of natural disasters, such as the increased frequency and intensity of drought events. In this study, we employed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) to analyze and predict the temporal and spatial variation of drought and its characteristics in the Songliao Plain under two global warming scenarios (1.5 and 2 °C). We used climate model data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The results show that drought will become more frequent in the future; it is more serious at representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 than RCP4.5 and under global warming of 1.5 °C than 2 °C. Geographically, the SPEI indicates that there are signs of drought in the northwest and northeast of Songliao Plain while the SPI indicates that drought decreases from north to south. In terms of drought characteristics, the drought barycenter expressed by the SPEI moves to the northeast, while the drought barycenter expressed by the SPI moves to the northwest. The SPI relies on a single meteorological factor, making the SPI mutation test more stable. Finally, compared to the historical period (1976–2005), the frequency and duration of drought have increased, and it is more reliable to use the SPEI to monitor drought in this area.