Climate change scenarios and the dragon fruit climatic zoning in Brazil

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 149; no. 3-4; pp. 897 - 913
• Main Authors: de Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo, Dutra, Alexson Filgueiras, de Lima, Rafael Fausto, de Alcântara Neto, Francisco, Botega Torsoni, Guilherme, Renan Lima Leite, Marcos
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 01.08.2022; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aeronautics; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Bioclimatology; Climate change; Climate change scenarios; Climate science; Climatology; Cultivation; Dimensions; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Energy resources; Energy sources; Fruits; Global temperature changes; Hydrologic data; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Original Paper; Precipitation; Precipitation data; Rain and rainfall; Rainfall; Reduction; Temperature; Temperature rise; Waste Water Technology; Water demand; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Brazil; Crop modeling; Climatology; Climate risk; Cultivation aptitude; Pitaya
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-022-04090-9

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted.