Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study

• Published in: Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE Vol. 19; no. 6; pp. 5998 - 6012
• Main Authors: Suzuki, Ayako, Nishiura, Hiroshi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States AIMS Press 01.01.2022
• Subjects: chickenpox; covid-19 pandemic; immunization; mathematical model; sars-cov-2; mathematical model; COVID-19 pandemic; SARS-CoV-2; chickenpox; immunization
• ISSN: 1551-0018; 1551-0018
• DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022280

Public health and social measures (PHSMs) targeting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have potentially affected the epidemiological dynamics of endemic infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the impact of PHSMs for COVID-19, with a particular focus on varicella dynamics in Japan. We adopted the susceptible-infectious-recovered type of mathematical model to reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics of varicella from Jan. 2010 to Sep. 2021. We analyzed epidemiological and demographic data and estimated the within-year and multi-year component of the force of infection and the biases associated with reporting and ascertainment in three periods: pre-vaccination (Jan. 2010–Dec. 2014), pre-pandemic vaccination (Jan. 2015–Mar. 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Apr. 2020–Sep. 2021). By using the estimated parameter values, we reconstructed and predicted the varicella dynamics from 2010 to 2027. Although the varicella incidence dropped drastically during the COVID-19 pandemic, the change in susceptible dynamics was minimal; the number of susceptible individuals was almost stable. Our prediction showed that the risk of a major outbreak in the post-pandemic era may be relatively small. However, uncertainties, including age-related susceptibility and travel-related cases, exist and careful monitoring would be required to prepare for future varicella outbreaks.