Climatology of Arctic temperature inversions in current and future climates

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 150; no. 1-2; pp. 121 - 134
• Main Authors: Ruman, Caio Jorge, Monahan, Adam Hugh, Sushama, Laxmi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 01.10.2022; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Air pollution; Analysis; Aquatic Pollution; Arctic climates; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Atmospheric sounding; Boundary layers; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climate science; Climatology; Cloud cover; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Emissions; Energy budget; Force and energy; Future climates; Global temperature changes; Greenhouse gases; Ice cover; Inversion; Inversions; Modelling; Moisture effects; Original Paper; Planetary boundary layer; Planetary evolution; Polar environments; Radiative cooling; Regional climate models; Regional climates; Sea ice; Simulation; Simulation methods; Soundings; Surface energy; Surface properties; Temperature; Temperature inversion; Temperature inversions; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Winter climates; Arctic region
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-022-04147-9

Temperature inversions are a common feature of the Arctic climate, affecting the surface energy budget and planetary boundary layer transports. This study investigates the evolution of large-scale temperature inversions (between 925 hPa and 2 m) in the context of a changing climate. To this end, two five-member regional climate model (RCM) ensembles, driven by the Canadian Earth System Model, spanning the 1950–2099 period, corresponding to two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), are considered. An ERA-Interim driven simulation for the 1979–2005 period is also considered to assess model performance. A comparison of observed atmospheric soundings with the boundary layer variations in the reanalysis-driven simulation indicates that the model captures the temperature inversion characteristics reasonably well, with some positive biases in the temperature inversion strength and frequency. The transient regional climate change simulations suggest substantial decreases in both temperature inversion strength and frequency in winter in future climate for both emission scenarios. These changes are consistent with the reduced sea ice cover and the associated increase in cloud cover that reduce the surface radiative cooling necessary for the formation of strong temperature inversions. Some increases in the frequency and strength of temperature inversions are projected for summer over the Arctic Ocean, possibly linked with increased poleward moisture transport.