Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay an...

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Published inChinese physics B Vol. 23; no. 5; pp. 665 - 670
Main Author 何苏红 封泰晨 龚艳春 黄雁华 吴成国 龚志强
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 01.05.2014
Subjects
Climate
Construction equipment
Correlation
Delay
Networks
Rainfall
Summer
Synchronization
东亚夏季风
东部地区
极端降水
网络构建
网络预测
降雨率
非线性相关
预测精度
Asia
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ISSN1674-1056
2058-3834
1741-4199
DOI10.1088/1674-1056/23/5/059202

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Summary:A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay （1 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay （2 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon （EASM） or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.
Bibliography:A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay （1 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay （2 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon （EASM） or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.
prediction, extreme rainfall, synchronization, complex networks
11-5639/O4
He Su-Hong, Feng Tai-Chen, Gong Yan-Chun, Huang Yan-Hua, Wu Cheng-Guo, Gong Zhi-Qiang（ 1.Institute of Science, PLA University of Science, Nanjing 211101, China ;2. Atmosphere and Science College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;3.Laboratory for Climate Monitoring and Diagnosing, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China ;4.Laboratory for Climate Diagnosis of National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China）
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SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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content type line 23
ISSN:1674-1056
2058-3834
1741-4199
DOI:10.1088/1674-1056/23/5/059202