A multistage irrigation water allocation model for agricultural land-use planning under uncertainty

• Published in: Agricultural water management Vol. 129; pp. 69 - 79
• Main Authors: Dai, Z.Y., Li, Y.P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.11.2013; Elsevier
• Subjects: Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage; Agricultural irrigation; agricultural land; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Biological and medical sciences; crop yield; crops; developmental stages; foods; Freshwater; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agronomy. Plant production; irrigation management; irrigation water; issues and policy; Land use; Multistage; Planning; probability distribution; profits and margins; socioeconomic development; Stochastic programming; uncertainty; Water allocation; watersheds; China, People's Rep; Agricultural irrigation; Multistage; Water allocation; Planning; Land use; Stochastic programming; Irrigation; Uncertainty; Water resource management; Land use plan; Farmland; Irrigation water; Environmental management; Modeling; Water engineering; Agriculture; Models
• ISSN: 0378-3774; 1873-2283
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2013.07.013

•A multistage irrigation water management model is developed.•Uncertainties of probability distributions and interval values can be handled.•Policy scenarios associated with different levels of economic penalties are examined.•Irrigation water for multi-crop is allocated under different growth stages.•Optimal cropping area can be obtained in profitable and sustainable ways. In practical agricultural water management problems, fluctuating water availabilities and demands, varying crop yields and economic profits, as well as changing irrigation patterns in both temporal and spatial scales are challenged decision makers. These challenges are being further compounded by rapid socioeconomic development associated with increased food requirement and decreased resources accessibility. A multistage irrigation water allocation (MIWA) model is developed for agricultural water management and cropland use planning in response to such complexities. The MIWA model is derived from incorporating interval parameters within a multistage stochastic programming (MSP) framework, such that uncertainties expressed as interval parameters and probability distributions can be tackled, and the real-time dynamic irrigation water management can be conducted. It can also support the analysis of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the pre-regulated crop targets are violated over a multistage context. The MIWA model is then applied to a real case of planning agricultural water management and cropland use pattern in Zhangweinan River Basin, which is one of the driest regions in China and faces serious water scarcity. Solutions of irrigation targets for multiple crops as well as actual water-allocation patterns in different growth stages can help determine optimized water and land use in agricultural system, which could hedge appropriately against future available water levels in more profitable and sustainable ways.