Trends and abrupt changes of precipitation maxima in the Pearl River basin, China

• Published in: Atmospheric science letters Vol. 10; no. 2; pp. 132 - 144
• Main Authors: Zhang, Q., Xu, C.‐Y., Becker, S., Zhang, Z. X., Chen, Y. D., Coulibaly, M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 01.04.2009; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Annual precipitation; Asian monsoons; Atmosfärs- och hydrosfärsvetenskap; Atmosphere and hydrosphere sciences; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian model; change point detection; China; Climate change; Climate science; Earth sciences; Environmental research; Geovetenskap; Hydrology; Mann‐Kendall trend test; NATURAL SCIENCES; NATURVETENSKAP; Pearl River; Precipitation; Precipitation patterns; Precipitation variability; Probability theory; Rainfall; Rainfall intensity; Risk assessment; River basins; Rivers; Trends; Variability; Water resources; Wind; Winter precipitation; China; Yangtze River; China, People's Rep., Zhu R; China, People's Rep
• ISSN: 1530-261X; 1530-261X
• DOI: 10.1002/asl.221

We applied the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test and Bayesian model to systematically explore trends and abrupt changes of the precipitation series in the Pearl River basin. The results showed that no significant trends were detected for annual precipitation and summer or winter precipitation totals. Significant negative trends were identified for the number of rainy days across the Pearl River basin; significant positive trends were observed regarding precipitation intensity (PI). In particular, the precipitation totals and frequencies of extremely high precipitation events are subject to significant positive trends. In addition, the number of extremely low precipitation events was also increasing significantly. Factors affecting the changes in precipitation patterns are the weakening Asian monsoon and consequently increasing moisture transport to Southern China and the Pearl River basin. In summary, the main findings of this study are: (1) increased precipitation variability and high‐intensity rainfall was observed though rainy days and low‐intensity rainfall have decreased, and (2) the amount of rainfall has changed little but its variability has increased over the time interval divided by change points. These finds indicate potentially increased risk for both agriculture and in locations subject to flooding, both urban and rural, across the Pearl River basin. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society