Machine Learning–Based Personalized Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Radiofrequency Ablation
Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a widely accepted, minimally invasive treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC recurrence after RFA treatment for individual patients. We included a total of 1778 patients with...
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Published in | Gastro hep advances Vol. 1; no. 1; pp. 29 - 37 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Netherlands
Elsevier Inc
2022
Elsevier |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a widely accepted, minimally invasive treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC recurrence after RFA treatment for individual patients.
We included a total of 1778 patients with treatment-naïve HCC who underwent RFA. The cumulative probability of overall recurrence after the initial RFA treatment was 78.9% and 88.0% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. We developed a conventional Cox proportional hazard model and 6 ML models—including the deep learning–based DeepSurv model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel’s c-index and was validated externally using the split-sample method.
The gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model achieved the best performance with a c-index of 0.67 from external validation, and it showed a high discriminative ability in stratifying the external validation sample into 2, 3, and 4 different risk groups (P < .001 among all risk groups). The c-index of DeepSurv was 0.64. In order of significance, the tumor number, serum albumin level, and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin level were the most important variables for the prediction of HCC recurrence in the GBDT model. Also, the current GBDT model enabled the output of a personalized cumulative recurrence prediction curve for each patient.
We developed a novel ML model for the personalized risk prediction of HCC recurrence after RFA treatment. The current model may lead to the personalization of effective follow-up strategies after RFA treatment according to the risk stratification of HCC recurrence. |
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Bibliography: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 2772-5723 2772-5723 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.gastha.2021.09.003 |