Incorporating climate change model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies: Synthesis of a SETAC Pellston Workshop

• Published in: Integrated environmental assessment and management Vol. 20; no. 2; pp. 359 - 366
• Main Authors: Stahl, Ralph G., Boxall, Alistair B.A., Brix, Kevin V., Landis, Wayne G., Stauber, Jenny L., Moe, S. Jannicke
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.03.2024
• Subjects: Bayesian network; Chemical management; Chemicals; Climate Change; Climate change models; Climate Models; Ecological effects; Ecological risk assessment; Ecosystem; Ecotoxicology; Environmental assessment; Environmental impact; Environmental Impact Assessment; Environmental management; Environmental management cycles of chemicals and climate change; Environmental Pollutants - analysis; Global climate; Humans; Integrated environmental assessment; Risk assessment; Risk Assessment - methods; Risk Management; Toxicology; Workshops; Climate change; Chemical management; Environmental management cycles of chemicals and climate change; Bayesian network; Ecological risk assessment
• ISSN: 1551-3777; 1551-3793
• DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4883

The impacts of global climate change are not yet well integrated with the estimates of the impacts of chemicals on the environment. This is evidenced by the lack of consideration in national or international reports that evaluate the impacts of climate change and chemicals on ecosystems and the relatively few peer‐reviewed publications that have focused on this interaction. In response, a 2011 Pellston Workshop® was held on this issue and resulted in seven publications in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. Yet, these publications did not move the field toward climate change and chemicals as important factors together in research or policy‐making. Here, we summarize the outcomes of a second Pellston Workshop® on this topic held in 2022 that included climate scientists, environmental toxicologists, chemists, and ecological risk assessors from 14 countries and various sectors. Participants were charged with assessing where climate models can be applied to evaluating potential exposure and ecological effects at geographical and temporal scales suitable for ecological risk assessment, and thereby be incorporated into adaptive risk management strategies. We highlight results from the workshop's five publications included in the special series “Incorporating Global Climate Change into Ecological Risk Assessments: Strategies, Methods and Examples.” We end this summary with the overall conclusions and recommendations from participants. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:359–366. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). Key Points A SETAC Pellston Workshop® was organized in Oslo, June 2022, to explore novel approaches for incorporating climate change scenarios and global climate model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies. The workshop brought together experts from multiple disciplines including climate modeling, catchment modeling, hydrology, biogeochemistry, environmental chemistry, ecotoxicology, biology, and ecological risk assessment to build working relationships across these scientific communities. Participation from climate scientists and other experts has contributed to advancement of risk assessment methodology, for example, by the use of climate model ensembles, different approaches to downscaling, and further processing and use of climate information by statistical distributions. A new conceptual framework, Environmental Management Cycles of Chemicals and Climate Change, offers eight guiding questions to help decision‐makers identify chemical risks from climate change, management options, and different types of actors that are instrumental in managing that risk.