Increased European heat waves in recent decades in response to shrinking Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover

• Published in: NPJ climate and atmospheric science Vol. 3; no. 1
• Main Authors: Zhang, Ruonan, Sun, Chenghu, Zhu, Jieshun, Zhang, Renhe, Li, Weijing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 18.02.2020; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/35; 704/106/694/2739; Acidity; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate models; Climatology; Computer simulation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Heat; Heat flux; Heat waves; Ice cover; Ice environments; Jet streams (meteorology); Latitude; Sea ice; Snow; Snow cover; Sodium channels; Soil temperature; Summer; Temperature gradients; Wave packets; Arctic region; Europe
• ISSN: 2397-3722; 2397-3722
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0110-8

In recent decades, unprecedented extreme summer heat waves have occurred in Europe, and they have exhibited an increasing trend since 1970s. Although previous studies have suggested that these recent hot European summers could have been instigated by the underlying surface thermal conditions, the possible influence of shrinking Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover on heat waves are not well understood. Herein, we present evidence obtained via observational analyses and numerical experiments indicating that the interdecadal increase in European heat waves is closely linked to the reductions in Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) and Eurasian snow cover fraction (EASC) across mid–high latitudes via the excitation of the anomalous Eurasian wave train. The combined effects of declined ASIC and EASC, accompanied by the drier soil and the stronger heat flux, tend to weaken the poleward temperature gradient at mid–high latitudes and affect the midlatitude jet stream and transient eddy activities. These dynamic and thermodynamic circulations increase the likelihood of more persistent European blocking events that favor frequent and strengthened heat waves. Further projection analysis of simulations from 13 CMIP5 climate models suggests that Europe may experience more hot summers as the ASIC and EASC continue to decline over the next century.