Simulation of CO2 enrichment and climate change impacts on soybean production

• Published in: International Agrophysics Vol. 30; no. 1; pp. 25 - 37
• Main Authors: Fu, Tongcheng, Bokeun Ha, Jonghan Ko
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Lublin De Gruyter Open 2016; Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Agrophysics
• Subjects: air; carbon dioxide; climate change; crop model; crop yield; decision support systems; free air carbon dioxide enrichment; Glycine max; planting date; soybean; soybeans; temperature; Illinois
• ISSN: 2300-8725; 0236-8722; 2300-8725
• DOI: 10.1515/intag-2015-0069

The potential doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and associated changes in temperature and precipitation are crucial issues for agricultural productivity. The CROPGRO-Soybean model in decision support system for agro-technology transfer v4.5 to simulate soybean (Glycine max cv. Pioneer 93B15) grown in an elevated CO₂ environment was calibrated and validated. Crop growth and yield data were obtained from a series of experiments conducted in central Illinois at the soybean free air CO₂ enrichment facility from 2002 to 2006. The model was applied to simulate the possible impacts of climate change on soybean yield in the region for the future years of 2080-2100, centred on 2090. The model reproduced the measured soybean growth and yield well under ambient and elevated CO₂ conditions. For the period from 2081 to 2100, soybean yield was projected to decrease due to elevated temperature but to increase due to elevated precipitation and CO₂ concentration, achieving counterbalance. The adverse impacts of the warming conditions on soybean yield can be mitigated by late planting within an optimum planting range (day of year 145 to 152) as a management option, as well as by controlling genetic responses to thermal days in the reproductive stage.