SVIR epidemic models with vaccination strategies

• Published in: Journal of theoretical biology Vol. 253; no. 1; pp. 1 - 11
• Main Authors: Liu, Xianning, Takeuchi, Yasuhiro, Iwami, Shingo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 07.07.2008
• Subjects: Communicable Disease Control - methods; Computer Simulation; Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control; Global stability; Humans; Immunization Schedule; Immunization, Secondary; Models, Immunological; Permanence; SVIR; Vaccination; Vaccination - methods; Virus Diseases - immunology; Virus Diseases - prevention & control; SVIR; Permanence; Global stability; Vaccination
• ISSN: 0022-5193; 1095-8541
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.10.014

Vaccination is important for the elimination of infectious diseases. To finish a vaccination process, doses usually should be taken several times and there must be some fixed time intervals between two doses. The vaccinees (susceptible individuals who have started the vaccination process) are different from both susceptible and recovered individuals. Considering the time for them to obtain immunity and the possibility for them to be infected before this, two SVIR models are established to describe continuous vaccination strategy and pulse vaccination strategy (PVS), respectively. It is shown that both systems exhibit strict threshold dynamics which depend on the basic reproduction number. If this number is below unity, the disease can be eradicated. And if it is above unity, the disease is endemic in the sense of global asymptotical stability of a positive equilibrium for continuous vaccination strategy and disease permanence for PVS. Mathematical results suggest that vaccination is helpful for disease control by decreasing the basic reproduction number. However, there is a necessary condition for successful elimination of disease. If the time for the vaccinees to obtain immunity or the possibility for them to be infected before this is neglected, this condition disappears and the disease can always be eradicated by some suitable vaccination strategies. This may lead to over-evaluating the effect of vaccination.