Delegating strategic decision-making to machines: Dr. Strangelove Redux?

Will the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in strategic decision-making be stabilizing or destabilizing? What are the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating military force to machines? How might non-nuclear state and non-state actors leverage AI to put pressure on nuclear states? This article anal...

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Published inJournal of strategic studies Vol. 45; no. 3; pp. 439 - 477
Main Author Johnson, James
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Routledge 16.04.2022
Taylor & Francis Ltd
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Abstract Will the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in strategic decision-making be stabilizing or destabilizing? What are the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating military force to machines? How might non-nuclear state and non-state actors leverage AI to put pressure on nuclear states? This article analyzes the impact of strategic stability of the use of AI in the strategic decision-making process, in particular, the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating military force (or automating escalation) to machines. It argues that AI-enabled decision support tools - by substituting the role of human critical thinking, empathy, creativity, and intuition in the strategic decision-making process - will be fundamentally destabilizing if defense planners come to view AI's 'support' function as a panacea for the cognitive fallibilities of human analysis and decision-making. The article also considers the nefarious use of AIenhanced fake news, deepfakes, bots, and other forms of social media by non-state actors and state proxy actors, which might cause states to exaggerate a threat from ambiguous or manipulated information, increasing instability.
AbstractList Will the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in strategic decision-making be stabilizing or destabilizing? What are the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating military force to machines? How might non-nuclear state and non-state actors leverage AI to put pressure on nuclear states? This article analyzes the impact of strategic stability of the use of AI in the strategic decision-making process, in particular, the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating military force (or automating escalation) to machines. It argues that AI-enabled decision support tools - by substituting the role of human critical thinking, empathy, creativity, and intuition in the strategic decision-making process - will be fundamentally destabilizing if defense planners come to view AI's 'support' function as a panacea for the cognitive fallibilities of human analysis and decision-making. The article also considers the nefarious use of AIenhanced fake news, deepfakes, bots, and other forms of social media by non-state actors and state proxy actors, which might cause states to exaggerate a threat from ambiguous or manipulated information, increasing instability.
Author Johnson, James
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  ident: cit0040
  contributor:
    fullname: Hadfield-Menell Dylan
– ident: cit0078
– ident: cit0112
  doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195374049.001.0001
– ident: cit0095
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Snippet Will the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in strategic decision-making be stabilizing or destabilizing? What are the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating...
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informaworld
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Publisher
StartPage 439
SubjectTerms Ambiguity
Artificial intelligence
Creativity
Critical thinking
Decision analysis
Decision making
deterrence policy
emerging technology
Empathy
Escalation
Impact analysis
Intelligence
Intuition
Mass media effects
National security
News
Non-state actors
nuclear security
Social media
Social networks
Stability analysis
strategic stability
Tradeoffs
U.S.-China relations
Title Delegating strategic decision-making to machines: Dr. Strangelove Redux?
URI https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2020.1759038
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2659516800
Volume 45
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